[SMM Steel Market Morning News] The probability of the US Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in May rises to 96.3%

★Macro★

01 ★★★ [In April 2025, imports reached 1,654.6 billion yuan, with a trade surplus of 446.4 billion yuan]

State Administration of Foreign Exchange: In April 2025, the scale of China's international balance of payments for goods and services trade imports and exports was 4,370.6 billion yuan, up 6% YoY. Among them, exports of goods trade were 2,101 billion yuan, imports were 1,654.6 billion yuan, and the trade surplus was 446.4 billion yuan.

02 ★★★ [Has the US suspended the sale of engine technology to China? Foreign Ministry: The US's relevant practices generalize the concept of national security and maliciously blockade and suppress China]

Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian hosted a regular press conference. A reporter asked, "A spokesperson from the Chinese Embassy in the US responded to a reporter's question about the US's suspension of the sale of engine technology to COMAC, stating that China firmly opposes the US's exaggeration of the concept of national security and abuse of export controls. However, isn't China's own export control system similar? What are the differences between China's and the US's export control systems?"
Lin Jian stated that China's export control measures are in line with international common practices and are non-discriminatory, not targeting specific countries. We are willing to strengthen dialogue and cooperation in the field of export controls with relevant countries and regions and are committed to maintaining the stability of the global industrial and supply chains.
Lin Jian pointed out that the US's relevant practices generalize the concept of national security, politicize and instrumentalize economic, trade, and technological issues, and maliciously blockade and suppress China. "We firmly oppose this and will resolutely safeguard our legitimate rights and interests."

★Industries and Downstream Sectors★

01 ★★★ [Shanghai introduces policy for withdrawing housing provident fund for the renovation of old residential elevators]

The Shanghai Housing Provident Fund Management Committee issued the "Notice on Policies Supporting the Renovation of Old Residential Elevators with Shanghai Housing Provident Fund," which will come into effect from July 1, 2025. According to the provisions of the Notice, after the renovation project for old residential elevators is approved by the owners through legal voting and the homeowners' association signs a construction contract with the construction unit, residents who need to share the cost of elevator renovation can withdraw the balance stored in their housing provident fund accounts to pay for the self-financed portion of the elevator renovation that they are responsible for. Applicants eligible to withdraw the housing provident fund include the homeowner themselves, their spouse, their parents, and their children (including the children's spouses). If the applicant is a borrower, the borrower's spouse, or a co-borrower of a housing provident fund loan in this city, they must meet the condition of having no overdue payments on the current loan.

02 ★★★ [Ministry of Transport: From January to April, 950.3 billion yuan was invested in fixed assets for transportation]

Ministry of Transport: From January to April, 950.3 billion yuan was invested in fixed assets for transportation, including 653.4 billion yuan and 68.4 billion yuan invested in highways and water transportation, respectively. Ministry of Transport: From January to April, 97.51 billion yuan was invested in fixed assets for rural roads nationwide. Approximately 20,000 kilometers of rural roads were newly renovated or constructed, completing 19.5% of the annual target task (100,000 kilometers).

★Other Hot Topics★

⭕CISA: According to calculations based on the data from the coking coal long-term agreement coal-steel linkage plan, the floating value of the coking coal long-term agreement coal-steel linkage in May 2025 decreased by 31.2 yuan/mt MoM from April, a drop of 2.39%.

⭕On May 29, the Standardization Working Committee of the China National Association of Metal Material Trade organized the first meeting of the drafters for the group standard "Construction Specifications for Zero-Carbon Iron and Steel Industrial Parks," officially launching the compilation work for the group standard.

⭕The "Henan Provincial Port-Adjacent Industry Development Plan (2025-2035)" was released. It mentions accelerating the cultivation of port-adjacent industry clusters in modern logistics, steel, advanced equipment, light industry and textiles, food, new materials, port and shipping services, and circulation and trade.

⭕On May 28, the European Union issued a final anti-dumping ruling on flat-rolled products of iron or non-alloy steel, plated or coated with tin, originating in China, imposing anti-dumping duties of 13.1% on Baosteel, WISCO-Nippon Steel, and 46.8% on Shougang Jingtang.

⭕On May 15, the Department of Foreign Trade of the Thai Ministry of Commerce issued an announcement stating that, in response to an application from domestic Thai enterprises, Thailand initiated a second sunset review investigation into anti-dumping duties on high-carbon wire rods originating in China.

⭕On May 29, the Australian Financial Review website published an article stating that Glencore, a global commodity giant, is transferring assets worth over 30 billion Australian dollars to Australia, aiming to prepare for future large-scale mergers with other commodity giants.

⭕In Q1 2025, a total of 2 domestic real estate bond issuers confirmed substantial defaults or triggered cross-default clauses (excluding extension scenarios) for onshore credit bonds, involving 2 bonds, a decrease of 80% compared to Q1 2024.